The Jobs Stall

Headlines out of the July employment situation report released this morning have been a bit unduly influenced by rounding errors. The unemployment rate ticked up an almost imperceptible amount?from 8.22 percent to 8.25 percent?in a survey with a fairly high margin of error, but it was enough to stop rounding down to 8.2 percent and start rounding up to 8.3 percent. The underlying reality from the more precise establishment survey was sunnier?a net addition of 163,000 is a decent number. Except that in broader context, there?s nothing decent about it. Across the first half of 2012, the economy?s added 151,000 jobs per month. Across 2011, the number was 153,000 per month. Those are the kind of numbers a healthy economy would be adding. But the American economy didn?t start this period in a healthy place, and needs to be adding jobs at double or triple that rate to get us back to full employment.

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